Packrift scenario model
Subscription Refill Orders: Two-pack repeat order
Subscription orders are attractive packaging tests because quantities repeat. The package rule can be narrow and still affect meaningful volume. This repeat quantity band model uses 640 monthly orders and a DIM divisor of 139 to compare the current Multi-depth carton against smaller protective formats.
What this scenario is testing
This version tests whether the second unit still nests efficiently or pushes the order back into carton territory. The model starts with an item profile of 8 x 5 x 3.14 in, 1.15 lb per unit, and 2 units per order. The current package is 12 x 9 x 8.05 in with 86 seconds of pack time.
Packrift treats the result as a screening recommendation. It is strong enough to prioritize a pilot, not strong enough to replace invoice analysis, damage tracking, or warehouse observation.
Candidate rule
Create separate rules for one-cycle, two-cycle, and family-plan quantities rather than letting one carton cover every subscription order.
Assumptions used
- $0.73 per billable pound.
- $19.50 per warehouse labor hour.
- 1.25% current damage rate.
- $34.00 expected replacement or support cost.
Risk checks
- quantity bands
- insert cadence
- return rate
- fulfillment rule accuracy
How to test it
- Tag orders with exactly two units.
- Record whether the second unit changes dunnage or fold behavior.
- Keep the rule separate from single-unit orders until variance is measured.
Same segment
Package Candidate Comparison
Generated from the same Packrift Flex Fit assumptions| Package | Size | Utilization | Billable weight | Cost/order | Annual impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi-depth carton baseline | 12 x 9 x 8.05 in | 30% | 6.25 lb | $6.62 | $0 | Baseline |
| Padded mailer | 10.5 x 7.25 x 3.99 in | 85% | 2.39 lb | $2.83 | $29,096 | Adds light protection without carton void |
| Multi-depth carton | 9.5 x 6.5 x 6.8 in | 61% | 3.02 lb | $3.73 | $22,149 | Best carton option for variable order depth |
| Corrugated carton | 10 x 7 x 7.55 in | 49% | 3.8 lb | $4.27 | $18,003 | General-purpose safe fit |
| Cut down current carton | 12 x 9 x 7.05 in | 34% | 5.48 lb | $5.92 | $5,381 | Operational fix using current carton family |
| Poly mailer | 10.25 x 7 x 3.15 in | 114% | 2.36 lb | $2.71 | $29,989 | does not fit modeled occupied volume, overpacked for damage risk |
| Rigid mailer | 9.5 x 6.25 x 6.3 in | 69% | 2.69 lb | $3.04 | $27,475 | not recommended for this item profile |